Adjusted offense/defense rank for Georgia and Michigan State

Average rank of offense Georgia played was 82.30. Georgia finished 3rd in total defense.
82.30+3=85.30 divided by 2 for an adjusted total defensive rank of 42.65.
Average rank of offense MSU played was 66.23.  MSU finished 5th in total defense.
66.23+5=71.23 divided by 2 for an adjusted total defensive rank of 35.62.

Average rank of defense Georgia played was 47.85. Georgia finished 37th in total offense.
47.85+37=84.85 divided by 2 for an adjusted offensive rank of 42.43.
Average rank of defense MSU played was 57.46. MSU finished 60th in total offense.
57.46+60=117.46 divided by 2 for an adjusted total offensive rank of 58.73.

For anyone who hasn't read my previous adjusted stats posts I get them by averaging the rank of every team played adding the opposite stat (i.e. average offensive rank of opponents + defensive rank of team and dividing by 2) to adjust stats for relative quality of opponents. Any 1AA team is automatically given a rank of 120 (last) which is dead last if they were a 1A team.

When adjusted it raises Michigan State's defense slightly ahead of Georgia's. Georgia's offense already looked slightly better, 30 yards rushing per game while even in passing, and when adjusted Georgia pulls a bit further ahead of Michigan State. Again these appear to be two evenly matched opponents.

Michigan State: By the numbers

Here is a look at the raw data comparing Michigan State and Georgia.

	UGA	Nat. Rank	MSU	Nat. Rank
Passing yards	241.2	50	247.5	44
Passing yards allowed	165.1	8	168.4	12
Rushing yards	172.69	40	142.92	75
Rushing yards allowed	103.38	10	104.31	12
Total offense	413.8	39	390.4	60
Total defense	268.5	3	272.7	5
PPG scored	32.2	33	30.8	38
PPG allowed	19.6	16	17.5	9
Punt returns	6.68	81	11.7	24
Punt returns allowed	16.9	119	9.92	86
Punting average	43.46	22	39.47	75
Kickoff returns	22.4	48	24.31	13
Kickoff returns allowed	23.47	92	23.69	100
Kickoff average	65.68	18	65.17	26
First downs	21.6	38	19.8	67
First downs allowed	14.3	2	16.2	12
Sacks	2.62	18	3.15	7
Sacks allowed	2.23	83	1.23	26
Tackles for loss	7.23	18	6.85	27
Tackles for loss allowed	5.77	67	5.08	35
Turnovers gained	29	16	22	50
Turnovers lost	22	63	15	9
Turnover margin	7	23	7	23
3rd down %	43.50%	39	39.56%	74
Opponent 3rd down %	28.81%	3	33.70%	17
Red zone TD %	63.46%	42	60.78%	62
Red zone FG %	19.23%	69	21.57%	57
Red zone total %	82.69%	57	82.34	58
Redzone trips	52	36	51	39
Opp. Red Zone TD %	66.67%	94	60%	64
Opp. Red Zone FG %	22.22%	70	17.14%	33
Opp. Red Zone total %	88.89%	108	77.14%	30
Redzone trips allowed	27	6	35	20
FG%	60.60%	98	72.70%	47
Time of possession	33:48:38	6	31:27:69	27

Truthfully from a statistical point of view these two teams may be the best match up of the bowl season. Georgia averages about 30 more yards per game rushing. Outside of that the offenses and defenses put up nearly identical numbers. Michigan State appears to be slightly better all around in special teams but their numbers don't really blow me away. The one stat that concerns me quite a bit is the sacks and tackles for loss allowed by Georgia. Michigan State is one of the best in the country at getting sacks and tackles for loss. Georgia is in the bottom half of the country in giving them up. Georgia must improve in that area to give their offense a chance against will be one of the better defenses in the nation. All in all it should be a great game.

Breakdown of 2012 schedule

Most of you have probably already seen next year's schedule. Here it is in case you haven't with a few of my thoughts on how it breaks down.

Sept. 1: Buffalo Bulls - Easy cupcake to start the season with. Gives the new players on the offensive line a chance to break themselves into the starting lineup without a true threat of UGA losing the game.


Sept. 8: at Missouri Tigers - Tricky SEC opener. Missouri will not be as good as South Carolina next year but it will be a tricky game because there is no familiarity with Missouri and because it is a long road trip. Missouri's team and fans should be pumped as it will be their first SEC game. Georgia should win this game but they must take Missouri seriously or they will be in for a huge fight.
Sept. 15: Florida Atlantic Owls - Great timing for this game as the long road trip to Missouri could take a toll on the team. Another game for the offensive line starters and backups to get experience they will need.

Sept. 22: Vanderbilt Commodores - In the past a game Georgia may over look but with the way this years game went down Vandy will have Georgia's full attention.

Sept. 29: Tennessee Volunteers - Possibly a trap game between Vandy (did I just say that?) and South Carolina. Tennessee could be dangerous but until proven otherwise they seem to be a sinking ship.

Oct. 6: at South Carolina Gamecocks - At least on paper this game will be between the top two teams in the SEC East next year. I feel much better about this game with our offensive line having five games under their belt than I would if we played South Carolina in week two.

Oct. 13: open date - I actually like the bye here better than right before Florida. South Carolina is the most physical team we play during the regular season and probably the biggest game of the season as it is likely to decide the east. A week to recharge physically and mentally after this game is much needed.

Oct. 20: at Kentucky - Sandwich game between South Carolina and Florida could make this game more interesting than it should but the open date after South Carolina should help to do away with that.

Oct. 27: Florida Gators (at Jacksonville) - GA/FL is kinda a big deal. If Georgia can win it will be back to back wins against UF it will be 2 in a row, 3 out of 6, and 4 out of 9. While that is not something normally to get excited over that is light years better than only having 1 win from 1990 to 2003. In my mind it would put to rest talk of the past 20+ years of the rivalry and each years game would be measured on its own merit instead of in terms of demons of years gone by.

Nov. 3: Ole Miss - Another game that could be more interesting than it should be because it is between UF and AU but Georgia should be able to win this game comfortably anyways. Ole Miss is just not very good and will have travelled to Arkansas the week before heading to Athens. Pretty tough back to back road trips.

Nov. 10: at Auburn Tigers - The away team has a winning record in this series. Does AU continue its slide or does the youth on last years team start to show its growth and maturity? Although Richt has beaten AU regularly I don't like the idea of Auburn having a chance to ruin Georgia's shot at the SECCG so hopefully we will have it wrapped up by this game.

Nov. 17: Georgia Southern Eagles - Literally the Georgia Tech scout team complete with former Georgia Tech coaches. Perfect game to have before playing Tech.

Nov. 24: Georgia Tech - Georgia beats Tech that is just what happens. Teams with an extra week to prepare for Tech's option game fair pretty well against Tech. I can only imagine having a team that runs exactly the same offense can only have a positive effect on the game for Georgia.

Overall it is hard to look at the schedule and not think it is lined up great for Georgia. The only two things I see as possible negatives are traveling to Missouri for their first SEC game ever which should make for a very pumped up team and playing a stretch with 4 out of 5 games away from home. Manage those two obstacles and next year could (should?) be a special season for Georgia.  

Merry Christmas!

Just wanted to wish everyone a very Merry Christmas. Here is hoping that you are able to celebrate the day with the ones you love. As for me my kids are only two and three so while they talk a good bit about Christmas and Santa they don't understand that they can wake up early and get their presents so all of the adults are awake but the kids are still sleeping. My biggest fear for the day is that once my son sees his Thomas the Train presents from Santa he will have no interest in opening any of his presents from anyone else. Anyways once again Merry Christmas.

A Christmas Story

I have been taking a few days off from blogging to spend time out of town with the in laws and friends in South Carolina. Back home now but spending time with my family and enjoying having some time away from work. One Christmas tradition that we love is TBS showing "A Christmas Story" for 24 hours. We usually watch it once all the way through and other than that just catch parts of it over and over as it is on in the background throughout the 24 hours from 8 to 8. One thing that I just saw on TV though is that the rating on the show preview has it rated it as a 3 star show. If four stars is the highest rating then "A Christmas Story" is at least 5 stars. If you disagree with me I'll shoot your eye out.

McGarity's influence paying off for more than just football.

Earlier this year I posted about McGarity and the positve effects of McGarity on Mark Richt and the football team. Now this article does not directly state anything about McGarity. It actually gives all the credit to Andy Landers for instituting the program this season. However it is hard to believe that with Landers having coached women's basketball at Georgia for 32 seasons and never having put the emphasis on this before that it was not at least partially McGarity's doing. What makes it even better to me is that McGarity seems to have set it up to make it look like the entire idea was Landers. He is helping the coach improve his team but also helping out with the coach's PR.

This is coming on the heals of hearing about how our previous athletic director held back funds from people that Richt believed deserved more money despite the fact the program was was finacially one of the best in the country. In the article that talks mostly about how Richt paid out of his own pocket to give money to people he felt deserved it there is this bit

And regarding these extension talks now underway with McGarity, Richt indicated that the discussion wasn’t just about his own compensation.
“There are other things that we talk about too,” Richt said, “student-athlete welfare stuff or maybe we can do this or that. He might see something that he would like me to improve and I might say we want to work on some kind of facility issue. What I'm saying is we've just had some great talks, not only about extending my contract, but what can we do to be the 'Best in America' type talks too, which is exciting.”

Richt has in the past asked for certain things, like an indoor practice field, and it was pushed off or scaled down. Even when Richt finally did get the indoor practice field it was only a 20x60 yard field. In fact it was actually smaller than the recent indoor field built at Georgia Tech. With the facility being so new I doubt McGarity will push hard for another one to be built but I have a hard time believing he would have settled for something that is not even the best in the state. The short term effects have been seen with slimming down from the nutrition program, Richt having more time to concentrate on the field instead of off, and various other small things. I continue to expect that as time goes by the benefits of the changes made by McGarity will pay off more and not just for football but for the entire athletic program.

Another domino falling into place for Georgia next year.

Looking at all the teams in the SEC East right now it would appear that going into next year Georgia and South Carolina are the favorites to battle it out for division title. Kentucky was awful this year and has never come close to winning the division. Tennessee lost to Kentucky. Vanderbilt is improving but still has a long ways to go and by the way they are Vanderbilt. Florida was a mess this season and will have a new offensive coordinator for the third time in three seasons as well as a new starting quarterback. Missouri is a bit of a wild card but they were a pedestrian 7-5 in the Big 12(-2) this past season. They have had some success as of late but will be adjusting to life in the SEC.

That leaves the race really down to the two favorites I stated above, Georgia and South Carolina. South Carolina's best player will be coming off an ACL tear and now losing a major part of their success. Despite Spurrier being the head coach at South Carolina they have been a team that has won by playing great defense. They are 4th in total defense and 12th in scoring defense this season. Losing Ellis,the guy who put together that defense, will hurt them. It will hurt them more because there are not many coaches of his caliber that run the 4-2-5. Here is an old but pretty good break down of his version of the 4-2-5, the players named don't fit but the scheme is still what they run today. With Ellis Johnson leaving South Carolina will have two choices: hire from within to keep the same defense or change schemes. Hiring from within runs the risk of a position coach getting in over his head as a coordinator, think Willie Martinez. Bringing in someone who runs a different scheme runs the risk of an adjustment period as the team adapts to the new scheme, think Grantham's first year at Georgia. These may not turn out to be huge issues for South Carolina but it should be expected to set the defense back at least some next year. That should give Georgia at least some advantage when playing South Carolina.