Sunday, October 9, 2011

And then there were three...

There are three teams left alive in the east. Despite Georgia's recent winning streak they are still the only team of the three that does not control their own destiny as far as making the SECCG. Records are for in conference as that is all that really matters for winning the east. South Carolina and Florida finish up SEC play November 12th while UGA has an OOC game the 5th and therefore finishes up conference play a week later on the 19th.

-South Carolina 3-1 in the SEC. Games left @Mississippi State, bye , @Tennessee, @Arkansas and home against UF. Carolina controls their own destiny. If they win out they win the east because they have already beat UGA and so would have the tie breaker over them even if UGA wins out. Could survive a loss if UGA losses again and the loss is not to UF unless UF another game before they play Carolina. They play 4 teams they are capable of beating and will most likely be favored in all of the games except at Arkansas. The do however have to play on the road for three of the four games.

-UF 2-2 in the SEC. Games left @AU, bye, UGA(in Jacksonville), Vandy, @South Carolina. Despite two losses in a row UF also controls their own destiny. If they were to win out they would have only two losses and would drop South Carolina and UGA to 2 losses in conference as well and would own the tie breaker over both. Another loss to anyone and UF's chances of winning the division would rest on both UGA and Carolina falling apart. UF will be favored against Vandy, and probably a toss up in their other three if they are not the underdogs.

-UGA 3-1 in the SEC. Games left - @Vandy, bye, UF(in Jacksonville), non conference game, Auburn, UK. Geogia may have the easiest remaining schedule with Vandy and UK accounting for half their remaining games. In addition Georgia has two homes games while each of the others only have one. Georgia may have the best schedule left of the three teams but they are the only team that has to count on another team, South Carolina, to lose a game in order to go to the SECCG. Any loss by Georgia would then require South Carolina to lose at least two more games.

Technically speaking Vandy and UT are still alive but both would have to count on several losses by other teams in order to have a chance, neither can lose another game. UK winning it at this point would require things happening that have about the same odds as me winning Mega-Millions and Powerball jackpots in the same week.

What does this mean for UGA fans? Cheer hard against South Carolina. Hope that Mississippi State becomes more like the pre-season hype and less like the team that struggled mightily the last three games. If that doesn't work hope that Bray recovers quickly and that South Carolina has no answer for Da "I could be 2-0 in the UT/UGA series but I chose the wrong school" Rick Rogers. Hope that Arkansas>AU and AU>South Carolina = Arkansas having a chicken roast.

If all that fails and Georgia still has only 1 conference loss when UF travels to Columbia hope that Muschamp does one last thing for UGA by beating Spurrier. Wouldn't that be sweet to have the biggest win of his season at UF be the game that puts UGA into the SECCG? It is possibly UGA could not win out and still make the SECCG but it would require a complete collapse on the part of South Carolina. While I would love to see the latter part I don't want to have to rely on that. So there you have it. Win out, put the pressure on South Carolina and hope that South Carolina falls.

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