Keys to a Georgia Win.

Here is my take on what Georgia must do to win tonight.

1. Murray must play an even game. Last year he would be up and down within the same game. Overall it balanced out to the plus side but we need him to consistent throughout the game. He is the leader of the team and they need him on every play of every series to do his thing.

2. Someone other than Orson Charles must step up as a play maker to help Murray. That can be a running back, wide receiver or possibly even one of the other tight ends when Georgia goes with two. Hopefully it will be a collection of players making big plays but someone has to take advantage of the attention that Charles will most likely be drawing.

3. Defense must be sound fundamentally. It would be great if they create turnovers, get sacks and deliver a few huge hits but more importantly they need to not miss assignments. Moore is a very good at taking advantage when the defense misses an assignment and it will be vital that Georgia forces him to make plays instead of allowing him to take advantage of a blown assignment (wheel route anyone?)

4. The defense must have a leader. This off season all the talk about defense has been that Robinson is a good leader. He is the brains of the defense, but we need more than that. We need a player or two to step up and be the heart of the defense. We need someone that puts fear into opposing teams, a David Pollack, Thomas Davis, Odell Thurman type. Someone that you know is going to bring it on every play. Someone that the team knows is going to do his job and do it great for four quarters. Georgia needs someone who is going to lay it on the line and lead by example, making the routine plays as well as the amazing plays. There are plenty of players who have the athletic ability but which defensive player(s) are going to be true gamers. *This is a key to the season not just this game.*

5. Trench warfare. Boise is a physical team but that is not how they beat you. They beat you by being be precision team that plays physical. The thing is though very few teams get them into a street fight. You are not going to beat Boise my out scheming, out thinking, out executing them. You must do all those things because Boise will bring it in all three areas but the best way to beat them is to drag them into 15 round heavy weight fight. As Mike Tyson famously said "everyone has a plan 'til they get punched in the". Georgia has to take the fight to Boise in the trenches. The offensive line needs to be in attack mode, hit them and hit them again and again. The same goes for the defensive line. The only way a team can take advantage of a big size difference is to use that size to attack. If you let the other side pick the location of the battle then they can overcome with scheme, technique and determination. On the other hand if you are constantly bringing the fight to the other side then the side with superior size is more likely to win.

This is an over simplification but it can be compared to the Civil War. Lee had used his superior skills for years to overcome the North's superior numbers (size). When Grant took over he took a pretty good beating in almost every battle that was fought against Lee. The difference between Grant and his predecessors was that he knew he that if he kept taking the fight to Lee that eventually he would win based on the numbers. Grant won a war of attrition because he knew what he had and used that to his advantage.

Georgia needs to be the aggressor. Take the fight to Boise. Lean on both lines the entire game. Challenge the manhood of our big uglies and let them know that this game is all about them. Unleash hell for 60 minutes and see which side comes out on top once the dust settles.

Boise a lot like the Colts?

Yesterday morning on my way home from work I was listening to Mike and Mike and one of the guests (I don't remember which one) was talking about the Colts. They were basically saying the Colts built not only their offense but also their defense around Manning. They are a small fast defense that almost concedes that power teams can beat up their defense IF the Colts offense allows. The idea is for Manning to get them out to a sizable lead allowing the defense to then only have to play pass defense. Their run defense is their offense.

Last year Boise State ranked as one of the top defenses against the run. The question is how often that was a result of teams being behind early against Boise and forced into playing catch up. Boise has a disciplined defense that is also fast but undersized. The problem is very few teams have been able to take advantage of their size because they are often playing catch up and can't fully commit to the run.

Looking at Boise's stats against the run it they only give up a super impressive 2.93 ypc against. Compare that to Georgia’s 3.7 ypc allowed and it is a fairly significant difference. However when you take the sacks (and yardage lost which goes against rushing for statistics in college)for each team out of the equation it changes quite a bit with Boise giving up 4 ypc and Georgia increasing to 4.26 ypc allowed. That closes the gap quite a bit and when you consider the level of competition there really is no significant difference.

Even though Boise played a close game against Virginia Tech last year VT played from behind and therefore threw the ball much more often than is their style. The Oregon State game was not a blow out but early on Boise jumped all over them taking the Beaver's running game. Even in their one loss Boise State jumped out to a big lead when playing Nevada. The difference is that unlike other teams Nevada never gave up on the rushing game and when their defense started to get stops Boise was unable to stop the running game and gave up 269 yards rushing to Nevada (that is with the sacks subtracted). Every other game was a blowout from start to finish.

Does this mean Boise can't stop the run in a close game? No. It does show though that very few teams have been able to fully commit to running the ball against Boise for four quarters. To neutralize what Boise does best, rush the passer, Georgia needs to run the ball and stick to it even if they are down early in the game. It will be even more effective if Georgia can keep it close or even play with a lead early in the game. That will allow Georgia to mix in pass and run and force Boise's defense to do something it doesn't have to do very often, play the run. Georgia must test Boise with the run in order to truly take advantage of their size.

Couple of Boise State links

This could be the "one" weakness for Boise. A team that struggles with kickoff coverage might want to figure that out before having to kick to Brandon Boykin.

According to reports out of Boise the Bronco's of Denver dream of replacing their entire defensive line with the players from this years Boise State's defensive line. Let's just hope our offensive line is as good as Oakland's who put up a combined 98 points in their two games against the Denver version.

Run the ball, run it some more...

As I, and many other UGA faithful, have pointed out before there is one place where UGA has a distinct advantage, the overall size of the team. This is even more exaggerated by the fact that Boise's base defense is a 4-2-5. Murray is clearly the leader of the offense and the team is going to lean on him heavily this season to win games. For the Boise game though I think that Georgia should commit to the run and not get away from it unless absolutely forced to. Even down a score or two Georgia should continue to pound the ball. Over four quarters this will wear on a defense, especially an undersized one.

According to reports out of Boise they really only have 4 linebackers that they trust. Boise loves to throw different looks at an offense but with a power running game it is not as much about scheme as it is putting a hat on and hat and seeing who wins the battle. If Boise chooses to stay in its base defense then the big offensive line along with Bruce Figgins at fullback and Samuels at tailback will have an even bigger size advantage. If staying with the run forces Boise out of their base set into a 3 linebacker look then they will only have one trusted guy to back up three positions. It will open up the passing game as Boise will have one less man that is comfortable in coverage.

A full commitment to the running game will also make the play-action game, a staple of Georgia’s offense, much more effective. Boise's defense is one that is based on speed and discipline. They also rely heavily on producing a strong pass rush. By committing to a smash mouth type offense Bobo can negate what makes Boise so good. Defensive ends that are worried about stopping the run are much less effective as pass rushers.
Georgia averaged about 62 plays a game last season. If at the end of the Boise game Georgia has about 38-40 runs and about 22-24 passes I would truly like the odds of the Dawgs winning. If the game allows it, meaning Georgia is always close or leading, and that run total is able to surpasses 40 carries then I have a great deal of confidence that the Dawgs will come out on top.

Boise has no flaws...

Georgia fans seem to be bi-polar about this season. Opinions swing from "this is a wasted season already because Richt is still the coach" to "book your tickets for the SECCG". Boise fans are not just confident in their team they seem to think Boise has no weaknesses.

I do understand their confidence as Boise is a very good team that is extremely well coached. They do gloss over potential problems for their team as they lost the right side of their OL, both starting WR's, and 3 of 5 in the secondary. Boise very well may be able to replace all of those players without missing a beat. It is very bold however to claim that a line that gave up the third fewest sacks in the country "should be expected to only improve in the season to come" and that their receivers should "seamlessly fill the void left by Pettis and Young".

Maybe their fans are right and we made a huge mistake by scheduling them. If they truly have no weaknesses I am sure our coaches and players will be so terrified from watching their game film that a few of them may suddenly come down with horrible illnesses that keep them out of the game.

In all honesty I believe that Boise is rightfully the slight favorite for this game. Comparing their team last year to Georgia's and it is not even close. There is one problem with that, last year’s teams will not be playing. I think that Georgia will be the most focused during summer practice they have been since the last time we played Boise. I do not know if that will translate into a win but I do know that Boise better bring their A+ game if they hope to get out with a win.

Where's the beef?

Last year the biggest test for Boise State's offensive line was Virginia Tech. Most people assume Virginia Tech, being in an automatic qualifier conference that they would have the size advantage and be able to out physical Boise on the line of scrimmage. Comparing weights though Boise's offensive line was only 7 lbs lighter per player than Virginia Tech's. Boise's 4 down linemen on defense were actually bigger by around 13 lbs each. Combine the two and Boise was actually bigger across the lines than Virginia Tech was last year by 15 lbs. One of the perceived advantages for Virginia Tech was actually very slightly tilted in Boise State's favor.

That however will not be the case this year. Georgia's offensive line weighs in at 1647 lbs combined to Boise's 1479. A difference of almost 34 lbs per player. On defense Boise's front four are a combined 1125 lbs to UGA's 1234 (if you include the biggest linebacker as the "4th" lineman for a difference of around 27 lbs per player. In fact compared to last years Virginia Tech defensive line Georgia has 3 linebackers that are bigger than one of Virginia Tech's defensive end's and all 3 of Georgia's true linemen are bigger than Virginia Tech's biggest lineman.

Now will this weight advantage actually play a role in the game? It may or may not but there is no doubt that last year Boise did not face a team with the bulk on the line's that UGA will throw at them. Georgia's coaches will need to come up with a gameplan that will take advantage of the size advantage. They will also need to keep the game close early on so that they can be stubborn with their running game to help wear down the smaller Boise State defensive line. The final thing I like about this matchup is that even with 4 down linemen Virginia Tech was over matched with size, where as Georgia with only 3 will have the much bigger team than Virginia Tech did and still have 4 linebackers on the field which should also give them more athletes on the field than Virginia Tech threw at Boise.

Few tidbits on Boise State

Trying to pass time tonight at work I was trying to think of what I was going to blog on and realized that outside of a couple games each year I really don't know much about Boise State other than that they really get up for their big out of conference games, they are well prepared, disciplined, and are very used to winning. My first look at them I decided I would just take a look at their depth chart from the Virginia Tech game last year and compare it to what they had coming back this year. The first thing that jumped out at me is the number of players that will be juniors and seniors this year that were listed in their two deep. Fourteen players were listed as first team and seventeen as second team that will be the upperclassmen of this years Boise team. That is a lot of guys that have been around a winning program for a long time and that know how to win. From looking at last years roster and what they will look like next year this appears to be Boise's best team on paper in that 3 year time frame (2010-2012).

There is however two matchups that Georgia could exploit against Boise. The first is UGA's secondary against Boise's wide recievers. Boise normally lines up with 3 wr's which means the nickel back for UGA will come into play quite a bit. Boise State lost its top two wr's who accounted for half of their catches, yards and td's in the passing game. My guess would be those two would have accounted for even more if Boise was not involved in so many blow outs where the two didn't play the 4th quarter. Boise does return the rest of their receiving corp and so they will have some experience and depth just not the stars from last year. They will match up against a Georgia secondary that returns 4 out of 5 starters (counting Smith as the nickel back). The only position that will not be manned by the starter from the end of the season last year is safety. That position will most likely be filled by a player who did start games last year, either Hamilton or Williams. The best passing defense Boise faced last year was Virginia Tech who gave up and average of 205 ypg, good for 40th best in the country. Georgia's pass defense gave up 180 ypg, good for 16th best in the country. In their second year under Lakatos and Grantham and all but one player back (he is still on the team at LB) the passing defense should be set from game one while Boise will be looking to find out who steps up to fill the huge shoes of their departed wide receivers.

An even bigger advantage will be seen for UGA in a huge part of the game, special teams. Georgia returns the best kicker/punter combination in the country with Blair Walsh and Drew Butler. They also return Brandon Boykin as one of the most explosive kick returners in college football, who might also return punts this year, along with Branden Smith who might be Georgia's fastest player. Boise State lost their kicker, punter and top return man from last year. They also lost their backup punter (graduated) and the man they expected to take over kicking duties, rising junior Jimmy Pavel, left the team this summer. Titus Young was their best kick and punt returner and he is now in the NFL. The kicking game should be a huge plus in Georgia's favor and hopefully can provide field position and possibly even a few points for the team. In a close game Those extra yards and a kicker than put up three to win the game is huge.

If Georgia can take advantage of those two areas it should go a long way towards helping them win the game.